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We tell
the world about the world
Our mission is to further the promotion of liberal democracy and the safeguarding
of the environment by the actions of accountable governments. To advance this
cause we report, without fear or favour, the affairs of nations that are in
transition, their politics, economics, business, finance and human rights -
and we tell it how it is, consistently, calmly, and objectively.
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| Countries: Georgia |
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Posted on Friday, July 25, 2008 - 01:39 PM |
Is war in the air?
There is no doubt trouble is brewing in the Caucasus once again. The Russians have been emboldened by their success in quelling the revolt in Chechnya. The Chechens have been subdued by the old tactic of 'divide and rule.'
Chechen President Kadyrov is their man. But he is not a stooge - far from it. He pays lip-service to Moscow and gets their full support in return. He runs his own show - with the utmost brutality.
"The West must confront Russia to prevent another conflict from breaking out in the Caucasus," the President of Georgia has told The Times. Mikhail Saakashvili said that elements in Russia were intent on provoking trouble in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and compared Europe’s response to the failures of appeasement in the 1930s.
This is a frequently invoked, but highly dubious, example, as we shall see.
Provocative incident - but who is the real provoker?
Georgia is threatening to shoot down Russian fighter jets after Moscow admitted that four aircraft flew over South Ossetia in early July. Separatists of a pro-Russian stamp control the region, but it is recognised internationally as part of Georgia. “The situation is precarious and the things they are doing are outrageous. Unfortunately, they are not opposed by the Europeans and other players,” Mr Saakashvili said.
“If you can claim a legitimate right to overfly a neighbouring country with the intent to bomb it just because you have your own concerns, that is killing international law.
Russia said that its jets deterred a Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, a claim dismissed by Tbilisi. The incident became public during a visit to Georgia by Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, when a senior State Department official gave warning of catastrophe, if Russia failed to halt pressure on its former Soviet satellite.
Saakashvili spoke at the Levadia Palace in Yalta, Ukraine, where the wartime allies Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin and Franklin D. Roosevelt met in 1945 to partition Europe after Germany’s defeat. “I don’t know what is playing out in Russia, but it doesn’t look good. I don’t think they are crazy enough to start a war but seeking trouble seems like an obsession for some people there,” he said.
“The West needs to react to it. For some time I have been hearing that both sides should be exercising restraint. That doesn’t look good to me. It looks like examples from the last century.”
Asked if he believed conflict would break out, Mr Saakashvili replied: “The point is that every day we are waking up with some surprises and when sometimes I think it can’t get any worse, then it does get worse.”
Tensions have soared since April, after Georgia accused the Kremlin of plotting to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which border Russia. There is little doubt that Putin gave the green light for this new outbreak of tension - he warned as much - as a result of the UDI of Kosovo supported by so many western powers.
The territories broke from Georgia in the early 1990s in wars after the collapse of the Soviet Union. De jure they are both provinces of Georgia, but after all this time, de facto they are and have long been receiving the benefits of Russian citizens, including passports and travel documents.
Georgia has recalled its ambassador to Moscow over the crisis, which comes at a time of growing friction between Russia and the West after the G8 summit in Japan. President Medvedev infuriated Britain and the US by appearing to back sanctions against Zimbabwe, only for Russia to veto them at the United Nations.
Georgia regards the crisis as evidence of Moscow’s determination to block its entry into Nato by provoking renewed separatist fighting. The military alliance will consider applications from Georgia and Ukraine in December.
No Sudetenland or Prague
There is of course no doubt as to whom is the real provoker - Russia. But it is really stretching a point for Saakashvili to try and shame the West by drawing a comparison with Chamberlain and Munich. Putin is a nasty bit of work all right - but he is no Hitler. He knows that a re-occupation of the entire Caucasus is out of the question, much as he would love to do it. His one known witticism is: " He who has no nostalgia for the Soviet Union has no heart; but he who thinks it can be recreated has no head."
Hitler wanted the German-populated part of Czechoslovakia back, the Sudetenland, not so much for itself, although it held the valuable Skoda Arms Works and excellent defensive fortifications (which the German generals told the Nuremburg Tribunal astonished them by their in-depth strength), as for the enfeeblement and occupation of Czechoslovakia. September 1938, with the concession of the Sudetenland at the fatal Munich conference, led straight to the rape of Prague in March, 1939 - and to the Second World War.
This is not the forerunner of Georgia's predicament today. The Russians covet Abkhazia for its own sake, very much so. The natives are friendly and it is potentially a splendid place. It has a magnificent coastline, fine villas on the sea, the favourites of the politburo of old, Stalin, Beria et al; great wines and brandies and a clement climate by Russian standards. It is one of the best places for a holiday on Earth. That is its attraction for the Russian elite who have their vacation villas there.
If the Russians are allowed quietly to enjoy their Caucasian resorts, they will not cause much further trouble. The siloviki are not Nazis or Nazi-look-a-likes after all, even if they all too quickly adapt thuggish methods to get their way.
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| Countries: Azerbaijan |
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Posted on Friday, July 25, 2008 - 01:37 PM |
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The longue duree
A clash between the principles of territorial integrity and self-determination is occurring in the Caucasus, creating the longest interethnic dispute in the former Soviet Union. Armenians of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, part of Azerbaijan since 1923, seek independence.
Armenians comprise the majority in Karabakh and have a different culture, religion, and language than Azeris. Azerbaijan seeks to preserve its national integrity. Sharp differences over history, goals, events, casualties, cease-fires, and the roles of outsiders between Armenians and Azeris hinder mediation. The dispute has been characterized by violence, mutual expulsion of rival nationals, charges and counter charges. Armenian and Azerbaijan government control over combatants, at times, was loose. After the December 1991 demise of the Soviet Union and subsequent dispersal of sophisticated Soviet weaponry, the conflict worsened. Thousands of deaths and 1.4 million refugees have resulted.
In May 1992, Armenians forcibly gained control over Karabakh and appeared to attack the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, an Azeri enclave separated from Azerbaijan by Armenian territory. Possible action by Turkey, Russia, and others led to demands for action by the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) and the United Nations.
Other nations are involved. Neighbouring Iran mediated until May 1992 in part to pre-empt action by others and to contain instability to its north, but later condemned Armenian aggression. Turkey has historic, ethnic, and linguistic ties to Azeris and favors them. Yet it seeks peace in the Caucasus to further relations with Central Asia and not to compromise relations with the United States, Europe, and Russia.
Russia unconvincingly claims neutrality and has mediated, although some suggest that it gains influence with all parties from continuing instability. It certainly supplied Armenia with modern weaponry during the armed phase of the struggle, and by putting its weight behind Armenia, countered any military involvement by Turkey.
Feud with Armenia continues
The Caucasus is home to blood feuds that go on forever. This with Armenia is an eternal one in progress, or rather regress, right now. The Azeris are still smarting from the loss of 20% of their territory in the war with Armenia in 1989-92, which displaced nearly one and a half million people, who became penniless refugees.
It is of some import that the Aliyev clan in charge cannot be blamed for this calamity. Haidar Aliyev, the father of the present president, Ilham Aliyev, was ousted from the presidency, to which he had been appointed as long ago as 1969, by Gorbachev in 1987, for corruption and worse, in a short-term cleansing of the Soviet republican leadership. He made a comeback in the post-Gorbachev years in 1993.
The Aliyevs, who hail from the Azeri enclave between Iran and Armenia, Nakichevan, are completely in charge again and clamour for the return of that other enclave, Nagorno-Karabakh, held by the Armenians, along with the Lachin corridor. They have the enclavist mentality in extremis.
There is no question that the occupied land surrounding Lachin corridor belongs to Azerbaijan. It is without question illegally occupied. Nagorno Karabakh however, was granted to Armenians evicted from other parts of Imperial Russia by the tsars in the 19th century.
The Armenians are led by equally redoubtable folk, ex-leaders of the enclave no less, until recently President Kocharian, now by his soul-mate, President Sarkassian. They are adamant that Nagorno-Karabakh is theirs for keeps, as well as the corridor. After some sixteen years, deadlock prevails.
Diplomatic salvo from Yerevan
Each side naturally blames the other. "Azerbaijan is openly violating international treaties on conventional armed forces," said Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan during a meeting with co-chair of the Commission on Armenian issues of the House of Representatives Joe Nolenberg and commission members, held in the US Congress. [It is notable that by common consent, the Armenian lobby in the USA is second only in effectiveness, to that of Israel. However, Azerbaijan is a big oil supplier, Armenia has no oil!]
"In particular, Azerbaijan is violating regulations of the Treaty on conventional armed forces in Europe, which is not paid due attention by world society", said Nalbandyan, reading the statement, released by the department of press and information of the Armenian Foreign Ministry.
As for ensuring regional security, minister Nalbandyan drew attention of the congressmen to "the revenge campaign, carried out by Azerbaijan." Indeed. What else can you desire but revenge, when encroached on by a foreign folk.
Oil boom means arms boom?
What is giving the Azeris new heart is the extraordinary energy boom, with the oil price hovering around $150 per barrel and their GDP growth reaching unheard-of heights of over 30% per annum. Why not boost arms and have a new war with Armenia, which has no such largesse to spare?
There is a reason why not actually - Russia, which most certainly does, benefiting even more from the very same oil boom and increasing its defence budget by the day. The Russians stand full square behind the Armenians. They enabled the Armenians to win last time. After the success of their campaign to quell Chechnya, they would willingly do so again. Baku beware!
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| Countries: Russia |
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Posted on Friday, July 25, 2008 - 01:34 PM |
Cool War?
There is no doubt that there is a new chill in relations between the Russians and the West. But it is really only with the US and the UK, plus certain allies among the 'new nations,' not necessarily with Western continental Europeans, France, Germany and Italy.
But whose fault is it anyway?
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made it clear at the G8 summit in Japan in July that Russia would veto at the UN any idea of sanctions against Zimbawbe, as China had indicated it would do already. Is the idea really such a good one? Sanctions have never worked against Castro, Gaddafi, Iran, North Korea and many other others.
They might have seemed to do so against South Africa, but the apartheid regime fell for more reasons than one, not least the collapse of communism leaving it exposed as the world's number one pariah. Admittedly sanctions underscored that fact and may in that instance have been a contributory factor in its demise. But Zimbabwe is a special case. It is not a pariah, alas, to its African neighbours, as apartheid South Africa certainly was. It is above all modern South Africa that can apply the right sort of pressure after M’beki, a long-time chum of Mugabe's, goes.
M’beki's is not the only presidential term that almost everyone outside the country can't wait to see ended; there is of course Bush's second term. His presidency will doubtless go down in history as the most disaster-strewn one in US history. The one characteristic he shares with Hitler is to bring things to a head. Actually they share others too - to do it all in extreme haste and to fabricate causae be lli like confetti. Without having finished the job in Afghanistan, where the US after 9:11 had a perfectly legitimate reason for going to war, as acknowledged by the UN, he embarked on a war in Iraq for spurious reasons that has badly backfired, albeit those surviving Iraqis in the future might come to be grateful to the US for it all the same, if the mayhem eventually recedes and the US troops depart.
Enter Barack Obama, so say a vast majority of non-Americans. But it is the Americans who are going to decide of course. Never has a US election been more eagerly awaited.
While giving every indication that a green light would be available to Israeli bombing of nuclear installations in Iran, Bush has been plugging another bright idea, the installation of a nuclear shield in Northern Central Europe – to intercept missiles from Iran, North Korea and other rogue states. American presidents are notoriously poor at geography or perhaps it’s the jet lag (Reagan touching down in San Paolo and exclaiming how touched he was to be 'in your lovely country of Bolivia'; and Carter being shown all over New Zealand, seeing the Maoris, the geysers, their Southern Alps, et al, and signing a book of his memoirs, as a gift to the governor-general, in gratitude for his 'tour of your wonderful country of Australia'). But even Bush must be aware that North Korea and Iran are in a rather different part of the globe to Warsaw and Prague and that the flight path of their rockets would be thousands of miles away. The whole thing is obviously directed at neutralising any Russian missiles heading west.
Medvedev warned that he would consider counter-measures if the United States goes ahead with this dotty plan to build a missile defence shield in Central Europe. Medvedev said a deal on the missile plan signed in July between the United States and the Czech Republic "offends us greatly."
"Russia isn't going to get hysterical, but will be studying counter-measures," Medvedev told reporters after a summit of Group of Eight leaders including Bush in the northern Japanese town of Toyako. "We have stressed numerous times that issues of European security should be settled in a different way," Medvedev said. Moscow had offered joint Russian-NATO sites to track any missile threats. "Unfortunately there was no reaction to that. Our negotiations were rather weak and led to nothing," he said.
One must hope that even a McCain presidency would see an end to this provocative madness.
Army and navy build-up
With wild men in Washington, Russia is taking no chances. After collapsing in the 1990s, with the four-million army shrinking to 1.1 million today, the armed forces are now being massively expanded. The defence budget has quadrupled since 2000, thanks to a colossal energy boom. The Kremlin has earmarked $189bn to upgrade half of army and navy equipment by 2015, (still only a fraction of the US arms budget). This is in an economy now worth GDP $ one trillion per annum.
And then there are the air force and missile sectors demanding their hundreds of billions too. Putin told the military chiefs in November to improve the combat readiness of Russia's nuclear arsenal against 'muscle-flexing ' by NATO. He has denied 'sabre-rattling' by reviving the Red Square annual parades – a theatrical stand-by of all authoritarian regimes and some not so authoritarian.
One such was held on May 9th, Russia's public holiday marking victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. More than 100 vehicles, including armoured troop carriers, T-90 tanks and giant Topol-M nuclear missile launchers, paraded through Red Square, while MiG fighters, Blackjack supersonic bombers, plus a huge transport plane flew overhead. Putin and Medvedev stood with veterans, as 8,000 troops marched past. It was quite like old times.
Upgrade of air force
The Russian air force remains on track to receive a fifth-generation fighter replacement for its MiG-29 Fulcrum and Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker fleets, according to the service’s senior officer.
The new aircraft, the Sukhoi PAK FA (Advanced Tactical Fighter), will be built at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur aircraft manufacturing plant in Russia's Far East. The twin-engined fighter, which is expected to have thrust vectoring and supercruise ability, plus stealth capabilities, will be the Russian equivalent of the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor that has been wowing the crowd at Farnborough Air show (see below).
Speaking at Zhukovsky, just outside Moscow, the site of the Gromov Flight Institute in July, Col Gen Alexander Zelin told the RIA Novosti press agency: “We will begin test flights in 2009, and hope to receive the aircraft in 2013.”
Russian military aviation potential shown off at Farnborough.
Over 60 Russian companies were participating in the Farnborough International Airshow in the UK this year with Russia looking to show off its military export potential, but plane makers weren't flying their products.
Russia’s military holding company Rosoboronexports, paid for an exclusive stall next to the runway, away from other exhibitors at Farnborough in mid-July. It reflects the company’s soaring confidence, boasting no other country has doubled military exports this century, as Russia has to $6.1 billion. The country’s top 3 manufacturers - Sukhoi, Irkut and MiG - were all holding bullish conferences at Farnborough.
However, the Kremlin’s incorporation of the firms into a United Aircraft Corporation has raised fears of less responsive and dynamic operators, fears shared by Aleksey Fedorov, President of the UAC himself: “Yes, it’s correct, but we’re also investing a lot of money and resources to upgrade our industry, and I think we’ll be successful.”
Not a single Russian plane flew; the makers claim that they are too busy testing and upgrading.
It is a stark contrast to the world’ s top exporter, the US Air Force, which is showing, but not selling. It brought over the F22 Raptor, said by some to be the only plane better than Sukhoi’s new Su-35. But America claims the world’s only 5th generation fighter is too dangerous to export. Georganne Schultz, spokeswoman for the U.S. Air Force says: “It's such a new aircraft that we're still learning all its capabilities and how they're going to work as a composite force. So, we're really getting a handle on the programme.”
Russia is more than happy to fill the gap, Rosoboronexport’s $20 bn. order book is filled to 2015.
This is the first F22 to perform at a trade show across the Atlantic, but it is strictly for show, not for export. In fact maker Lockheed Martin was outsold on export last year 51:40 by Russia’s Sukhoi. The government hopes that the consolidation through the United Aircraft Corporation will help, not hinder, those impressive results.
The squabbles with the UK
While keen to participate at Farnborough, and to exploit the services of the City of London, and other British amenities, London itself to the fore, Russia’s relations with the UK have never been worse since the Cold War.
In August 2007, Putin marked a new era by re-instating Cold War-style long-range air patrols by strategic bombers. In April 2008 the MOD revealed that RAF fighter jets have been scrambled at least 21 times in 12 months to respond to Russian military aircraft encroaching on NATO air space. Just like old times!
The UK's security forces have identified Russia as the third most serious threat facing the country after Islamic terrorism and the Iranian nuclear proliferation. Russia's three main intelligence agencies have flooded the UK with agents engaged in military and industrial espionage. They even have the temerity to carry out assassination in the heart of London, as with the notorious case of Alexander Litvinenko in November 2006, which is unlikely ever to be cleared up. Russia refuses a British request to hand over a prime suspect, Andrei Lugovoi, who is a former KGB businessman and now20a Russian MP, which gives him immunity from prosecution at home too.
Britain is not prepared to extradite Russian tycoon, Boris Berezovsky, to share the fate of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, his fellow billionaire, in Siberia. Berezovsky said in July 2007 that British intelligence thwarted a plot to kill him.
Blair and Putin had a row at last year's G8 summit over these and other matters. Brown's meeting with Medvedev in July this year was frosty. He raised the issue of the treatment of BP and its staff. The FSB, the domestic successor to the KGB, raided BP's Moscow offices, and those of a jv, TNK-BP, earlier this year. This is a test case for not just British, but all foreign, investment in Russia.
BP mauled by Moscow
Non-British investors might imagine that the British are particularly unpopular in Russia and that the non-British, will not be targeted. The Brits are targeted partly because of the subaltern status of the UK as Washington's sidekick. The Russians would love to target the US itself, but can't. It is too important. The UK is another matter, an ideal substitute.
Actually, the Russians have a love-hate relationship with the UK. There is much they admire about Great Britain, a fellow victor in the Second World War. They love the Premier League of British soccer, which several of their magnates are buying up. They envy the British their stable monarchy and their Commonwealth cemented by it and by sport, and a common language, so different from the CIS, which is a dismal successor to empire by comparison. They envy the fact that English is the world language.
Richer Russians educate their children in England and have homes in London and the south of England. London for them is Moscow-on-the-Thames.
But there is no doubt of the widespread resentment against the British in the Kremlin and among the siloviki at the UK's subservience to the US on all important foreign policy issues. BP is paying the price here. With a quarter of its oil reserves held in Russia, it holds half the capital, the Russians, under Mikhail Fridman, the other half. It is turning out to matter crucially that the latter can draw on the full support of the state.
TNK-BP is being harassed at every turn. The billionaire international investor George Soros, observed a few weeks ago that Russia is hounding BP out of Russia and that Russia is not a proper or sensible place for investment, because it does not yet have the rule of law. That is the crux of the matter. “Tax police” with Kalashnikovs and balaclava helmets, arresting and terrorising office staffs have become a classic of Russian state intervention in private investments.
The Russians will not be satisfied until Gazprom or Rosneft have grabbed the lot. It was far too successful, like Khodorkovsky's Yukos, not to attract the covetous eyes of the siloviki running the Kremlin. In its five years of existence, TNK-BP has generated $18bn for BP and its four partners. Now the siloviki want in on the act. TNK-BP will go the way of Yukos - at least the BP executives can be consoled by the fact that they will not have to do time in Siberia or the Arctic.
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| Countries: Turkey |
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Posted on Friday, July 25, 2008 - 01:26 PM |
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Turkey has long been held up as a model secular Moslem country. But it has strains all the same. They are coming to a head right now, with an Islamicist party in office that is grating on the military elite that act as the guardians of secularism and democracy.
Attempted coup foiled
Prosecutors in Turkey charged 86 people on July 14 with plotting to overthrow the government, in a widening investigation in to a shadowy far-right organisation with alleged links to retired military officers.
The investigation into Ergenekon is widely viewed as part of a long-running power struggle between the government, with its Islamic leanings, and the secular elite, including the military. It is also being linked to a judicial process against the government that could see the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party shut down and its leaders, including Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, banished from public life.
The coincidence of the two cases has unsettled the Istanbul financial markets and raised fears of prolonged instability. Markets were relatively steady on the day, but analysts said the uncertainty surrounding the two cases, and the bitterness of the debate surrounding them, were undermining sentiment in Turkish assets.
The indictments against the accused were handed down by Aykut Cengiz Engin, chief prosecutor of Istanbul. Among the charges levelled at them were "being members of an armed terrorist organisation", "attempting to overthrow the Turkish government by force" and attacks on state institutions and their representatives.
The 86 were not officially named. But they are known to include the head of a fringe political party, disaffected former army officers and adherents of an uncompromising interpretation of secularism, the key founding principle of this Muslim country. Mr Engin said a 2,455-page indictment would be placed before the Istanbul criminal court, which has two weeks to decide whether to hear the case.
Those charged do not include two senior retired generals detained along with 19 others on July 1 and also implicated in the plot. A separate indictment was being prepared against these men, Mr Engin said. It is virtually unprecedented for such senior generals to be detained in Turkey. So far the army has maintained a studied silence on the issue.
Defenders of the accused, including their lawyers, claim the Ergenekon investigation is an attempt to silence critics of the government.
Ergenekon has been likened to the Gladio organisation that allegedly fomented internal subversion in Italy in the decades after the second world war. Those accused of being members have made no secret of their hatred for the AK party, which has its roots in political Islam but denies that it poses any threat to secularism.
Ergenekon's modus operandi was allegedly to cause such mayhem that the Turkish army, which sees itself as the ultimate defender of the secular republic, would intervene, overthrow the government and restore order. This is in effect what happened in the military coups of 1960 and 1980.
The most infamous crime in which Ergenekon has been implicated by Mr Engin is the 2006 murder of a judge of the council of state, Turkey's highest administrative court. The shooting was initially blamed on a young Islamist fundamentalist.
Turkey party closure case moves closer to verdict
Turkey's chief prosecutor asked the Constitutional Court in March to ban the AKP, the government party, accusing it of seeking to replace Turkey's secular system with an Islamic regime. The president of the court20said on July 15 that the rapporteur of Turkey's top tribunal had completed a written recommendation on whether the Islamist-rooted ruling AKP should be outlawed. "Our rapporteur has prepared his report... It is being distributed to our members," Hasim Kilic told reporters.
Kilic said he would consult with the other judges of the tribunal before setting a date for a verdict. He did not say what action the non-binding document recommended for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's AKP, which is accused of anti-secular activity.
The NTV and CNN-Turk news channels, however, said it commented on the headscarf issue as the government seeking to extend personal freedoms. It recommended that the court acquit the party of the charges of anti-secular activity and not ban it.
The prosecutors action also called for 71 party officials, including Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul, to be barred from party politics for five years. The AKP, which has its roots in a now banned Islamist movement, has rejected all the charges, describing them as "fictional" and politically motivated.
Some analysts say the chances of the AKP being banned has increased since the Constitutional Court in June scrapped a government-sponsored amendment to the basic law lifting a ban on the Islamic headscarf for females in universities. The amendment, which the court said violates the principle of secularism, was among examples cited by Yalcinkaya as evidence of the AKP's alleged opposition to the separation of state and religion.
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| Countries: Romania |
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Posted on Friday, July 25, 2008 - 01:23 PM |
Compliments to Paris
The Romanians are very Francophile. Romania is one of the few countries in the world where people speak French as their second language, not English. The Romanians regard the French as the most civilised people in the world, certainly not the Americans or English, Anglo-Saxon boors all. They look at the world through French spectacles. Many of their leading writers and intellectuals even wrote in French in Paris during the long night of communism - particularly repressive in Romania, such as Ionescu and Lucien Goldman.
This ardent Francophilia has paid off handsomely. Paris ensured Romania a fast-forward to the EU, along with Bulgaria, which both joined in January last year.
Brussels now is thinking it was perhaps premature, given the unsolved problems with corruption. Be that as it may, it is, in the French manner, un fait accompli. They are members but others will decide, and they have been warned, that they will not receive the large EU subventions, which were a major reason for their application, unless they promptly clean up their act. Bulgaria is in similar case for the same reasons. Brussels sees no point is remitting large funds – billions of euros - to these two countries, in order t hat the politicians and their cronies can siphon off grotesque amounts fro themselves.
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| Countries: Albania |
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Posted on Friday, July 25, 2008 - 01:21 PM |
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The happy millennium
Albania is doing very well out of the twentieth-first century. It used to be known as the poorest and most benighted country in Europe. That is now the plight of Moldova.
Albania has been booming since 1999, the date of the Kosovo War when NATO and the West came to town. Its GDP growth per annum has been around 7 per cent per annum since then.
Western funds and administrators in every conceivable line of business have been coming in - to make a Western success story in the Balkans for a change.
Former President Bill Clinton and Richard Holbrooke, Assistant Secretary of State, deserve the credit here. Holbrooke had negotiated the Dayton Agreement in 1995 that brought peace to Bosnia - with consummate skill. He was obviously far too bright to be made Secretary of State by Clinton on re-election in 1996; he would have eclipsed his boss in no time at all, as Kissinger did Nixon and then Ford.
An historic day - into NATO!
Albanian Prime Minister Sali Berisha hailed the 9 July signing of the protocol, the preliminary step of Albania's application for membership in NATO as an historic day to all Albanians. It is not yet NATO membership – but it is on the way.
NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and representatives of 26 member countries signed in Brussels the protocols of membership of both Albania and Croatia in the alliance in the presence of the foreign ministers of the two countries.
Signing of the accession protocol follows the receipt of the invitation to membership at the Bucharest Summit and the two rounds of successful negotiations between representatives of Albania and NATO that took place in the NATO HQ in the last six months.
At the meeting of the Council of Ministers, the Prime Minister expressed gratitude for the NATO members and US President George W. Bush, who conveyed support of his country for Albania's membership in the NATO when he visited Albania on June 10, 2007. "The signing of the protocol implies a great trust in Albania," Berisha said, stressing that the government he runs considered the signing a great responsibility for implementing all standards, criteria and principles of the NATO member countries.
He stressed that to the Albanian government reforms were its perpetum mobile and it (the government) would seriously respond to any request the Alliance would make Albania in the framework of cooperation and membership.
Considering reforms crucial for the achievements of Albania in the integrating processes, Berisha dwelt upon the zero-tolerance fight against organized crime, respect of the human freedoms and rights, and uncompromised fight against corruption, which has dissociated the public administration from the conflict of interest.
"Albania has the government with the lowest operational expenses in Europe, and it has been transformed into the country of open procurements from the country of direct procurements it was. We have fought smuggling, evasion and informality, which were based on corruption, providing income that is 1.220billion leks more than in year 1995," he said, mentioning also the supplementary budget that has been forwarded to the Parliament.
According to him, the deep economic and fiscal reforms had made Albania the country with the lowest fiscal burden in Europe, bringing it to the attention of the greatest world investors.
"Reforms have given the Armed Forces dignity and provided the country with a functioning democracy and a functioning market economy," the head of the Albanian government said.
Berisha also greeted Albanian troops on peacekeeping missions, considering them missionaries of the integration processes. "The troops we send on missions abroad make us the country with the highest number of peacekeeping troops on a per capita basis," he said, pledging that the government would do everything in order to deserve full membership in NATO.
Bucking the trend, Albania is sending a further 95 troops to Iraq to add to the 120 it already has there. No greater commitment could be displayed.
Exploit your credibility
Albania is making the most of its new-found respectability. Its government has taken out a 66.2 million euro loan from the Japanese government to modernise and overhaul its canal system and build a sewage treatment plant. The deal, which gives Albania a forty year period to repay the loan, was signed June 30 2008.
This is just the latest in a series of major financial commitments made20by the Albanian government, including a 25million euro loan from Austria at the beginning of last month to help Albania meet its requirements for EU entry, and another major loan taken by the Dures port authority from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to renovate the existing quays and build a new terminal at Albania's largest port.
All loans taken out by Albania are directed at improving the country's infrastructure with a view to aiding its flourishing track record for economic growth, which has been almost constant since it left Communism behind in 1992. It is a testament to Albania's economic performance since 1992 that it is taking out loans as oppose to receiving grants, it has had the economic power to take out such loans since the World Bank upped its designation to a middle-income country in 2007.
The Albanian government has an exemplary record for managing the country's economy, maintaining strong growth while keeping inflation low. The fact that it is taking out these major loans is a major indication for the Albanian economy, which they clearly expect to continue growing strongly. And they are not the only ones; David Stanley Redfern's head of international research Liam Bailey, said:
"Albania is one of the best places in the world to make a long-term property investment, not only is the government proving their competence time and again, by generating substantial economic growth in its own right while maintaining low inflation. But Albania is all set to become a full member of the EU in 2014, EU loans during this period will bolster the economy and continually aid schemes to develop the infrastructure, which then aids further economic growth, and then Albania's economy will be further boosted by reduced trade tariffs, repatriations from Albanian's going abroad to work, and a whole host of other benefits of EU membership."
One impressive factor that has come from Albania's economic growth of this decade is that a quarter of the population's poorest were brought out of poverty between 2002 and 2006, and unemployment continues to fall, at the same time as wages rise. As Albania's internal wealth and affluence continues to rise, living costs rise, and property values are continuously pushed up.
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| Countries: Macedonia |
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Posted on Friday, July 25, 2008 - 01:18 PM |
New coalition and government formed
On July 5th, Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski and ethnic Albanian leader Ali Ahmeti agreed a coalition for the troubled country's new government.
In June 1 snap parliamentary poll Gruevski's nationalist VMRO-DPMNE won by a landslide, while Ahmeti's Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) dominated in the Albanian minority, making up one-quarter of the 2.1 million Macedonians.
In the previous government, which lasted less than two years, Gruevski partnered with the bitter rivals of the DUI, the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA).
The rivalry between the DUI and the DPA stirred violence which marred the June 1 elections and forced a repeat vote at nearly 200 polling stations in Albanian-dominated north-western Macedonia.
Below-standard elections like this, as well as systemic corruption and stalled reforms have prevented Macedonia from progressing far toward European Union membership since winning the status of a candidate in 2005.
Kept out of the EU
In addition, diplomatic wrangling with Athens over the name Macedonia, which Greece claims for its northern province, left it on the doorstep of NATO three months ago, while two other Balkan nations, Croatia and Albania, received a membership invitation.
The Macedonians would be well advised to forget about the name change until after they are well inside the EU. They are hardly likely to be expelled from it for such a move, which it is particularly childish of the Greeks to refuse. They are not descended from the Ancient Greeks at all, but from Slavs and Albanians who settled Greece in medieval times. Anyway Philip of Macedon and Alexander the Great finished off the great age of Greece by conquering it and destroying the independence of its city states.
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| Countries: Croatia |
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Posted on Friday, July 25, 2008 - 01:10 PM |
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Into the EU and the Treaty of Rome - presto
Croatia is feeling cold-shouldered by the European Union (EU). Eager to leave the Balkans behind, Croatia is putting a brave face on its bid to join the EU as the bloc's enlargement drive stalls. French President Nicolas Sarkozy's warning that the EU can accept no new countries until all 27 members ratify the Lisbon reform treaty caused anger in Croatia, which hopes to join the club by 2011.
President Stjepan Mesic has sought to reassure his nation that the effort remains on track even after Irish voters rejected the treaty in a June referendum. Just days after the Irish setback, Croatia opened two new "chapters," or areas of negotiation, with the EU. "When it comes to Croatia joining the EU, it's up to EU to open all chapters and it's up to us to close them," Croatian media quoted Mesic as saying on July 14, Bastille day as it so happens, so appropriately in Paris.
"Sarkozy told me that Croatia is on the safe side," Prime Minister Ivo Sanader said recently. Independent media in Croatia were more pessimistic. Some called the Irish rejection an "apocalypse."
Croats are already disappointed with the long wait and EU conditions for membership. These include restrictions on government aid to the nation's debt-laden shipyards, putting up to 20,000 jobs at risk, and Croatia's agreement to give up a protected fishing zone in the Adriatic. "If Croatia's entry into the EU is postponed, Euro-scepticism will grow stronger," former foreign minister Mate Granic told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.
Adding to the bitterness is a sense that the EU is putting Croatia in the same basket as neighbour and rival Serbia, which is not even a membership candidate. Unless Croatia wraps up membership talks by next fall, "Croatia's entry would be connected with Serbia's and it would further postpone it," Granic said.
Now, Serbia's new pro-European government has set itself the goal of opening EU membership talks in the second half of 2009 - an ambitious target, given that the EU needs to see top Serb war crimes suspects arrested and handed over for trial in The Hague.
Of the countries to emerge from communist Yugoslavia's bloody breakup during the 1990s, only Slovenia has joined the EU. Others were slowed by protracted wars and economic transitions, and Croatia's relations with Slovenia have been prickly at times.
All EU hopefuls face uncertainty over the Lisbon treaty, which is meant to streamline decision-making in the expanded bloc. "There will be no enlargement of Europe if we can not reform institutions," Sarkozy said just before France took over the EU presidency for six months on July 1.
Sanader believes that the EU will find a solution and that Croatia will join in by 2011. "Croatia will finish the talks next year, after which one more year will be needed for the ratification of the agreement and a referendum in Croatia, " he recently told state television. "That means that from now until then we have two-and-a-half years, and I believe Europe will find a solution," he said.
As for Serbia, he said Croatia will be its ally on the road toward the EU.
Relief galore at the Serbian result
The results of the May 11 parliamentary elections in Serbia were of prime importance to Zagreb. They have led to the formation of a reformist-led, pro-EU government in Belgrade.
The Socialists of former Milosevic infamy turned away from the bleak prospect of endless ultra-nationalism underwritten by Russia, and are in the coalition, but only the rump of them and tamed by the dominance of the Democratic Party of President Boris Tadic, an ardent pro-European. The EU will assuredly want to encourage this welcome development towards Serbian accommodation with the rest of Europe. The last of the Balkan nightmares can now perhaps be laid to rest.
This requires bringing all the countries in the region into the EU, with the exception for a while of Turkey. That includes Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro unless the latter opts to remain outside, relying on Russian tutelage, who were quick to invest and to buy up real estate when Montenegro parted company with Serbia
The Irish call the shots
There is relief as well that the Irish seem to be moving towards calling for a new referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, probably in March next year. France’s President Sarkozy, is going to Dublin shortly to seek to clinch this matter, vital if the French presidency is to be a success. The Irish and the Croats share a Roman Catholic faith and devotion to the Papacy. A call by Pope Benedict in Dublin and an appeal to the Irish people by him to help their co-religionists would not be amiss.
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| Countries: Armenia |
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Posted on Monday, March 31, 2008 - 12:13 PM |
PM wins presidency
There is much controversy about the presidential election Armenia held on February 19. It has become a highly contentious affair. There have been street protests in Yerevan, where opposition forces are concentrated.
Few believe in the total probity of the Armenian electoral system. There was something a little too neat about the result. The establishment figure, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, a key ally of President Robert Kocharian, gained 53% of the vote, while his key challenger, former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, got a mere 21%. Yet the latter has the backing of 20 opposition parties. In the days up to the poll his rallies in Yerevan attracted as many, if not more, supporters than those for Sarkisian. It is not surpring if this has aroused suspicions.
How convenient for the PM to get just over the bar of 50%, obviating the need for a second round, with all the storm und drang that would have entailed. In the old days authoritarian regimes exposing themselves to popular election obtained 90% or more. Nowadays 50% will do. A more sophisticated way of doing things.
There are serious reasons to believe that a miscarriage of justice has taken place. The crowds that assembled in the central square of Yerevan for the opposition were in the region of 50,000, just as big, if not rather more so, than those for the PM. This does not square with a 53-21 result.
The OSCE acquiesces
The observers of the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) nevertheless deemed the election a fair one. There were 400 of them.
There were as many in the previous five presidential elections in Armenia since independence in 1991. The OSCE passed the last parliamentary elections as fair last year. But how do they know?
They don't speak the language. They are aliens. All sorts of hanky-panky could be going on without their knowledge.
There is also the fact that they would prefer not to know. Armenia is the least of their troubles.
State of emergency declared
Kocharyan declared a 20-day state of emergency on March 1. Restrictions included a ban on street protests and a measure limiting media to citing official information.
Kocharyan lifted that media restriction but left in force a measure forbidding the publication of "obviously false and destabilising information," the presidential press service said in a statement.
He also lifted a ban on the distribution of political leaflets without official permission, the statement said.
Russian investments boost the economy
The ex-Soviet state has enjoyed strong economic performance in the past few years, with gross domestic product growing in 2007 by 13.7 percent.
But credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service said in November that Armenia's economy could be vulnerable to an international slowdown and a cooling of its booming construction sector.
Russian firms control a significant chunk of the economy. Below are facts about the biggest foreign investors in Armenia:
* Armenia has given the Russian state railway monopoly a 30-year contract to run the national railway network for 1.7 billion drams ($5.5 million).
* Russian mobile operator Vimpelcom has become sole owner of Armenia's mobile and telecom operator Armentel after paying $488 million.
* Russia's top cellular operator Mobile TeleSystems (MTS) acquired 80 percent in Armenia's K-Telecom, which operates under the Vivacell brand, for 310 million euros ($430 million).
* An Armenian foil plant is controlled by Russia's RUSAL, the world's third-largest aluminum producer.
* Iran and Armenia have built a new $200 million gas pipeline to transport Iranian gas to Armenia in exchange for electricity supplies. Russian-Armenian company ArmRosGazprom -- in which Russian gas giant Gazprom owns 57.6 percent, the Armenian government holds 34.7 percent and Russian gas producer Itera owns 7.7 percent -- is to operate the new pipeline.
* Russia's Gazprombank owns 80.09 percent of Areximbank in Armenia.
* Russia's VTB purchased a 70 percent stake in Armenian Armsberbank and renamed it VTB Armenia.
* Russian TDA Holdings Ltd. holds 96.15 percent of Armimeximbank.
* Lebanon's Byblos S.A.L. has acquired the Armenia International Trade Bank.
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| Countries: Montenegro |
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Posted on Friday, January 18, 2008 - 01:30 PM |
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The newest of the new
Montenegro became the latest country to emerge last year when its people voted just enough, 55% in May, to obtain independence. Any rerun would see this victory repeated with a landslide, so popular has the independent reality been.
Montenegro separated from its former federal partner, Serbia, in June 2006 after a referendum on independence. It was an independent state until 1918 when its leaders opted to join the newly-formed Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes that later became Yugoslavia. Montenegro was the smallest among the six republics in federal Yugoslavia and it was the only republic to stay in a federation with Serbia after 1992.
Montenegro is poised to do really well. It is a jewel of a new country on the Adriatic. It has everything a nature-lover could want and is a tourist paradise close to the heart of Europe.
Its property market is the most expansive on the continent. It can expect a continuing flood of rich entrants, boosting prices. In particular it has attracted Russians some of whom have purchased the choicest developments.
But its own people have problems all the same. Not everything is paradise for them.
The EU beckons
This became clear in the EU report on Macedonia for this year.The Commission expects Montenegro to produce significant results in relation to improving administrative capacity and tackling corruption.
As the newest state in the region, Montenegro is praised for making good progress in establishing the necessary legal framework and institutions following its declaration of independence in June 2006. “The parliament and government adapted to the requirements of independence. They continued improving their efficiency”, the report says.
Nevertheless, the Commission considers that the capacity of parliament needs to be improved. The report recognizes the government’s attempts at reorganization as strengthening the new institutions, with a focus on defence reform, foreign affairs as well as and justice and home affairs.
“However, the government’s efficiency, in particular as regards implementation of legislation, needs to be further enhanced”, report notes.
The underhand underside
As elsewhere in the region, corruption in Montenegro remains widespread and represents a serious problem. “The founding of political parties and election campaigns lacks transparency”, the report notes.
Significant risk of corruption has been noted also in areas of construction and land use planning, privatisation, concessions and public procurement.
Public administration in Montenegro is considered as weak and inefficient. The Commission requires further efforts in ensuring the impartiality of public administration and the strengthening of its capacity, including the training of personnel.
Podgorica has achieved some progress in administrative and legal reform, but the report underlines that there are still some obstacles in the completion of this process because of a lack of consensus on issues relevant for the constitution, in particular language and religion. “Results have been limited so far as Montenegro has not yet established a sustained track record on reforms”, the report says.
Lack of progress is noted also in the areas of border policing, asylum, and migration, and the Commission recommends further efforts to deal with these.
Another serious problem pinpointed in Montenegro is money laundering. “Police capacities are limited and there is not yet a proper monitoring of financial transactions beyond the banking system, especially in relation to real estate and foreign investment”, the report says. “Some progress can be reported in the fight against drug smuggling, but it remains a serious problem”, it adds.
Regarding human rights and the protection of minorities, Podgorica has made progress in establishing a necessary framework following independence. However, it adds: “The creation of a solid basis for minority rights protection requires the inclusion of appropriate provisions in the constitution.”
Turning to the position of civil society, the report says it “remains fragile and tensions between government bodies and non-governmental organizations persist”.
The report says Montenegro has maintained a satisfactory level of cooperation with The Hague Tribunal, and it acknowledges that Podgorica has continued taking up international obligations since independence.
The economy has been growing fast and macroeconomic stability has been improved. “Risks subsist in particular from large current account deficit”.
However, poor administrative capacity has been affecting the economy. “Though structural reforms were pursued, weak institutional capacities and deficiencies in the rule of law continue to hamper the proper functioning of the market economy”, the report concludes.
Montenegro adopts first constitution after independence
The parliament of Montenegro adopted on October 19 with the two-thirds majority the country's first constitution since it regained its independence last year, said reports from the Montenegrin capital Podgorica. In the 81-seat parliament, the new constitution was supported by 55 MPs, while 21 voted against and the rest abstained. The parliament also adopted a law on implementing the constitution. The new constitution, which was backed by the ruling coalition headed by Prime Minister Zeljko Sturanovic and a part of the opposition, is the second in Montenegro's history as an independent and sovereign state, after the one adopted in 1905 under the reign of King Nikola Petrovic. Following months of deliberations in the parliament, the ruling coalition managed to secure the two-thirds majority required for the adoption of the constitution to avoid a referendum. Montenegro has a population of some 650,000, of whom 43 percent are Montenegrins, 32 percent Serbs, 12 percent Bosniak Muslims, 5 percent Albanians and 1 percent Croats.
According to the constitution, the official language of Montenegro will be Montenegrin, which is a dialect of Serbian. The pro-Belgrade Serb parties insisted that Serbian should be Montenegro's official language, and objected to the adoption of the red flag with the Montenegrin royal eagle, instead of the red, white and blue standard that is similar to the Serbian flag. The new constitution was one of the crucial missing elements for Montenegro's progress toward membership of the European Union, with which the republic signed a stabilization and association agreement.
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