Geopolemics.com

Countries: Iran
Posted on Monday, April 28, 2008 - 01:46 PM
	Criticism of Ahmadinejad grows The detailed results of the first round of the parliamentary elections show that the supporters of Ahmadinejad gained 59 seats, the conservatives loyal to Ali Larjani 36 seats and non-factional conservatives 44 seats. The reformists only won 24 seats, with 49 independents and 10 members of the minorities also being elected. Following the parliamentary elections, the success of Larjani’s new grouping of conservatives, the so called ‘reformist conservatives’, attracted a lot of attention. The other most influential rising star in the conservative camp, Mohammad Qalibaf, is also close to this relatively pragmatic grouping. Both he and Larjani are likely future presidential challengers. Compared to Rafsanjani’s old moderate pragmatists, who are absent from the parliament following their boycott of the polls, the reformist conservatives are more to the right of the political spectrum. Some pundits believe that a future alliance of moderates and ‘reformist conservatives’ has the best chance of seizing power in the future. While both Larjani and Qalibaf have so far been lying relatively low, sources of criticism towards Ahmadinejad are already multiplying. Economy and Finance Minister Daoud Danesh Jaafari is reportedly about to step down due to strong tensions with the President over economic management. In particular, Jaafari criticises Ahmadinejad’s free loans to poor Iranians as a major factor in driving money supply growth and inflation. A debate is also raging within the cabinet, among supporters of cheap loans and those like the president of the Central Bank who want them to at least match inflation. The loan spree is considered by many economists as a major factor in inflation growth. Even among the clergy, criticism over Ahmadinejad’s economic policies is mounting. In an unusual step, two traditionalist clerics, Ayatollahs Mohammad Reza Mahdavikani (former prime minister) and Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi, and a moderate Grand Ayatollah, Abdolkarim Mossavi Ardebili (formerly head of the judiciary), echoed popular discontent over prices and the cost of housing. A reflection of the increasingly defensive attitude of Ahmadinejad’s circle is the increasingly interventionism mood of the military into politics, and the open attacks by Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah, who is close to the reformists. A war of sanctions The impact of the sanctions on Iran’s economy remains a matter of discussion. The government claims that although trade with Europe is shrinking, this is more than offset by booming economic relations with Asia. In just one year (2007), trade with Germany, once Iran’s leading commercial partner, declined 26.5%, but trade with Asia and Pacific nations grew more than 100% in the past three years to reach about US$90 billion in 2007 and is expected to reach US$100 billion this year. The sanctions regime might become much tougher if Gordon Brown’s call for targeting the liquified gas sector will be welcomed, but winning Russian and Chinese support will be very problematic. Teheran’s increasingly proactive lobbying to be admitted into full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization seems to reflect a sense of growing isolation, but Russia and China do not appear to have any intention to let Iran as long as the nuclear dispute continues. Not all that happens in Iran’s economy is bad, however. Some observers do believe that within 3-4 years Iran will produce enough gasoline to meet not only internal demand but also to export it. The controversial measures taken to reduce the consumption (or waste) of gasoline are reported to have more than halved imports, from 223,000 bpd to 94,000 bpd. Similarly, oil production is growing although not very fast. In April it reached 4.21 million bpd, the highest level since the Revolution. Note: To read more, click here

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