Geopolemics.com :: Pakistan

Countries: Pakistan
Posted on Wednesday, February 24, 2010 - 02:13 PM
	Zardari blunders again President Zardari re-emerged from near seclusion towards the end of January and started talking to the press and travelling around the country, probably in an attempt to dispel the feeling that ‘his days were numbered’. However, in yet another display of his lack of political sense, he soon blundered in another hopeless confrontation. Zardari has reportedly been considering the option of referring to the presidential immunity clause in the constitution, in order to ward off the risk of prosecution. However, the position of the Supreme Court seems clear: it had already refused immunity to former president Musharraf on the ground that equality, as taught by Islam, excludes special treatment for anybody. Zardari already lost a confrontation with Chief Justice Chaudhry in February when he tried to appoint two protégés as a Supreme Court judges and Chaudhry resisted. Zardari had to back down and appoint judges acceptable to Chaudhry. Although the Chief Justice himself is coming under criticism by some of his erstwhile allies for his growing political attitude, Zardari’s unpopularity means that few are willing to side with him. Even Prime Minister Gilani, from Zardari’s own party, refused to support his choice of new judges. Zardari insists that the government will keep going until the end of its term and that mid-term elections are ruled out, but the opposition is increasingly aggressive. Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistani Muslim League and potential replacement of Zardari, had abstained from calling for his resignation until January, but has recently been calling Zardari ‘a danger for democracy’. Something moves on the Taliban front Observers were almost universally surprised by the arrest in Karachi of the operational chief of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Baradar. Mullah Omar’s avowed successor, Baradar is the highest ranking catch by the Pakistani intelligence since 2001. Pakistani and American source converge in attributing the decision to arrest him to months of very strong pressure from Washington. Two other relatively high rank Afghan Taliban were caught at about the same time. Now the question being asked by everybody is: is this the beginning of a determined campaign to hunt down Taliban leaders across Taliban territory or just a one off? Increasingly dependent on Washington aid, Islamabad might have decided that it needed to appease the Americans to an extent; it might also be that the Pakistani services, faced with the possibility of unilateral American actions (such as his physical elimination) decided to opt for the lesser evil and detain Baradar. A third possibility is that the Pakistanis might have decided to hasten the pace of talks between Taliban and the Afghan government, hoping for a positive fall out of successful talks on their side of the border. Holding one of the highest ranking Taliban leaders means that talks can now easily take place at the highest levels. Some recovery of a deeply flawed system There are signs of economic recovery in some economic sectors, particularly large scale manufacturing, but the government has so far been unable to make decisive progress in improving the supply of electricity, which is a major constraint to the industry. The cost of the war and a fall in revenue are making fiscal management increasingly complicated. The exchange rate to the dollar has remained quite stable at around Rs 84–85. Private credit is also recovering to some extent. There are few signs, however, that the basic attitude of Pakistani governments has changed: the country remains reliant on the willingness of foreign investors to sort it out. In fact the government might not have developed much capacity to do things itself and fill the gaps, even though the situation in some infrastructural sectors has been disastrous for years. The energy sector is badly in need of widespread repairs as well as of new investment, with about 3,000 megawatts lost each year out of an actual production of 19,000. According to the latest figures from the central bank, overseas direct investment in Pakistan dropped 54.6% in the first seven months of the current fiscal year. Note: To read more, click here

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