Geopolemics.com

Countries: Taiwan
Posted on Monday, March 31, 2008 - 10:59 AM
	Ma Ying-jeou wins a decisive victory Kuomintang presidential aspirant, Ma Yin-jeou, has won a decisive victory (58 percent to 42 percent of votes) in Taiwan's presidential election. With a clear majority in the legislature, the reins of power-the presidency, cabinet and legislative body-are now in the hands of a single party for the first time in eight years. Seeking to allay fears that the return of the KMT would result in a retreat of the democratic gains of the past, Ma has promised to run an inclusive government that will include both figures allied to the opposition as well as special interest and minority groups. Probably, with the people of Taiwan now used to free and (reasonably) fair elections, it will not be easy to rollback the gains, although some will no doubt try. It was an election that the DPP lost rather than one that the KMT won. As commentators pointed out the 60-40 split this time around mirrored the result of the pan blue/pan green contest of 2000 (but then the pan blues were split by fielding two candidates). In 2004 it was more of a 50-50 split of votes. This means that the extra 10 percent picked up by the DPP in the last election was lost to them this time. Corruption was a major cause. While holding out the promise of clean government, the DPP was as much wracked by scandal as the KMT before it. Lack of political progress with China was possibly another cause and especially the manner in which President Chen Shui-bian and his cohorts overplayed the "Taiwan factor" causing a downturn in Taiwan's important and strategic relationship with the United States. In previous elections to incur the wrath of China produced a positive response from the electorate; but the wrath of Washington was an entirely different matter. There will no doubt be a good deal of soul-searching within the Opposition and this will likely mean the end of Frank Hsieh's political career. If that happens he will be a loss to the political scene because he is one of the more pragmatic figures within the present DPP leadership; but on a positive note, it may hasten a search for the next generation of leaders that can carry the Party forward. The end result may be an invigorated party. Mr. Ma will be seeking to mend fences with China which remained suspicious of DPP intentions throughout its eight years of governance. But while some softening can be expected-and perhaps at last an opening of direct communication links-it will not be easy sailing. In reality the DPP and KMT positions vis-à-vis China are not that far apart. Certainly, with the KMT back in power, communications channels may open more readily but how to manage the political relationship without acceding to China's "one-China" principle and compromising Taiwan's own sovereignty may prove a tough challenge. More likely we may see a quick improvement of Taiwan's relations with the United States and, finally, conclusion of the arms purchase agreements which appear to have become bogged down recently. While business has called for (and Ma has promised) a healthier economy, he and his economic team may well find the going tougher than they expect (or let on). Taiwan's economic growth last year was a very respectable 5.7 percent. In a climate of rising inflation and slower global growth it will not be easy for the new team to deliver on their promise of a 6 percent rise of GDP annually over Ma's term. From a business perspective, the Ma victory will see Taiwan in no worse shape than before and things may even improve. From a political and human rights perspective (at least as they are understood in the democratic context) we will have to wait and see. Note: To read more, click here

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