Geopolemics.com :: Saudi Arabia

Countries: Saudi Arabia
Posted on Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 11:19 AM
	Entering the Nuclear Age Iran’s inauguration of the Bushehr (on the Persian Gulf) nuclear plant and the arrival of the nuclear fuel rods from Russia has quietly inaugurated a new era of tensions in the Gulf region. Predictably, Israel and the United States have expressed their concerns and the mainstream media has focused on how a nuclear armed Iran would be able to deploy warheads against Israel – also because Iran has developed a drone jet having a range of over 1000 km. However, as concerned as the West and Israel may be over the now de-facto emergence of a ‘nuclear’ Iran, it is of great concern to Saudi Arabia as well. The Saudis do not object to Iran’s legitimate pursuit of nuclear power to generate electricity; it is concerned that Iran is pursuing the program in seeming defiance of the rest of the world and the relevant international authorities, raising suspicions about Iran’s intentions about developing a nuclear weapons capability. The Saudis are also concerned that Bushehr is closer to Arab capitals in the Persian Gulf than it is to Tehran, not to mention the fact that it faces the world’s largest oil route, putting these cities at risk should any regional or international power decide to ‘take out’ the nuclear plant – because Bushehr could also serve as the site for Iran’s potential nuclear weapons program. The Saudis are also worried by the risk of potential nuclear leakage, resulting from an attack or from a malfunction. Saudi Arabia has not yet advocated military retaliation against Iran, but it wants more intense IAEA attention and assurances that Iran’s nuclear effort is for civilian purposes only. It is not difficult to imagine that Saudi Arabia may at some point also decide to invest in a nuclear program of its own. Several Gulf States have expressed interest in nuclear energy in response to the Iranian program, but the claimed ‘energy’ pursuit, cannot hide the fact that Arab countries are also considering pre-emptive nuclear weapons programs. The population of the Arabian Peninsula relies on desalination plants that are lined throughout the coast on the Gulf, these are easy targets for Iran, should it retaliate against an attack launched against Bushehr. The UAE have also been pursuing nuclear technology for civilian purposes and Egypt has also intensified its development. The arrival of the Russian fuel rods at Bushehr, then, may have launched a new ‘season’ in the Gulf region, which in the absence of any real peace-building efforts, remains as tense as ever. The nuclear shadow merely intensifies the existing tensions; a new (conventional) arms race may be the first direct result of Bushehr. Saudi Arabia intends to acquire some USD 60 billion worth of weapons and the US Congress is expected to allow it with little objection. Israel has not voiced any particular opposition over the sale, which would include more than 80 F-15 fighter aircraft, Blackhawk helicopters and related armaments. Over the past few months, as noted by Newnations, there have been many rumors of a budding Israeli-Saudi cooperation centered on both countries’ concerns about Iran’s pursuit of nuclear technology. Both countries consider the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran as untenable. Of course the ‘passive’ Israeli stance on the sale – billed as the largest in US history – is also due to the fact that Tel Aviv would receive all details about the equipment and that by the time the F-15’s are delivered, Israel will have the more advanced F-35 joint strike fighter. From the Israeli perspective, a better armed Saudi Arabia is an asset in the present Middle East regional context. The growing tensions in the Gulf region were also reflected by the Saudi decision to target ‘smartphone’ and ‘Blackberry’ communication devices in particular. The devices can have access to encrypted data, sent to offshore servers, evading local controls. The concern in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, which have also issued security motivated bans on the ‘Blackberries’, is that authorities are unable to identify spying or nefarious activity by militants. Iran is considered the greatest security risk: A military expert in Dubai suggested that as another phase of sanctions is launched against Iran, there is a lot of ‘electronic chatter’ about Iran that has raised security concerns against a potential ‘fifth-column’. Saudi Arabia has a vociferous and disgruntled Shiite population in its main oil producing region, while the UAE have close commercial ties to Iran and a large Iranian population. Fears of Iranian spying in Kuwait also contributed to the Blackberry ban. The Kuwaitis accused Iranians of identifying targets in case of a retaliatory strike against its nuclear facilities. The security concerns are also prompted by fears of al-Qaida, especially as the situation in Yemen which is dealing with two internal conflicts, has not been resolved. Yemen On July 25, ‘al-Qaida’ in Yemen took responsibility for two attacks against various infrastructures in the Shabwa province. The instability in Yemen is a source of great concern to its neighbors, and prevents these same neighbors from investing in the country, in such a way as to try to alleviate the socio-economic problems that fuel the tensions. Yemen’s president Saleh said that while foreign investment stood at over USD two billion in 1990, it was less than USD 10 million over the past five years. In 2009, al-Qaida tried to assassinate a Saudi prince and authorities argue that their control of the airwaves enabled them to monitor brewing terrorist or subversive activity, especially in the 2003-2006 periods, when authorities claimed to have used communications interceptions to avert a plan to topple the monarchy. Yemen has been intensifying its pursuit of militants, advising that it has arrested several militants, and stepped up security at important government facilities, at the end of August. However, the ‘smartphone’ bans may have been issued to control a less bellicose problem but one that is more insidious in challenging the strict social mores of Gulf society. These communication devices have become ubiquitous among Saudi and Gulf youth and they are used as purely social devices, facilitating contact between the sexes. Smartphones are the most important ‘dating’ catalyst and they threaten to subvert the more conservative family arranged boy and girl meetings that are the norm. The local youth threat may also be seen in light of the growing youth unemployment problem in the Kingdom; it stood at 10.5% in 2009. A group of 200 young university graduates staged a street demonstration – very unusual – in Riyadh demanding the government give them jobs. The public display of dissent only adds to security fears, seeing as militants often recruit among those who are unemployed and university educated. Two-thirds of Saudis are less than 30 years old and they blame an inadequate education system that fails to give them modern job skills, while many companies hire non-Saudis at lower wages in the service economy. The Saudi government announced, in August, a plan to curb unemployment in the 2010-2014 period from 10.5% to 5.5%. Note: To read more, click here

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